The information that Ukraine had entered the Russian border region of Belgorod began circulating at the end of March and was confirmed for the first time by Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday. The offensive started at the same time as Ukraine had been increasingly pushed back from its position in the neighboring Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops surprisingly entered last year and took control of large parts of the area. Analysts from the British ISW estimate that around 12 square kilometers of Belgorod region are under Ukrainian control, according to BBC.
Military analyst Jörgen Elfving says the offensive serves several purposes for Ukraine.
“One purpose could be to push back Russian units so that long-range weapon systems cannot reach targets in Ukrainian territory. Another overarching goal is to tie down Russian forces so they cannot be used on other fronts,” he says. It is also a way for Ukraine to demonstrate its military capability to carry out local counteroffensives and seize Russian territory at a time when Ukraine’s position in Kursk seems increasingly weak.
“Every time Ukraine makes an incursion into Russian territory, it is an embarrassment for Russia,” Elfving says.
At the same time, he believes the new offensive is a bad idea.
“If I were in Ukraine’s position, I would have tried to concentrate forces in Kursk and hold onto as much territory as possible,” he says and continues:
“They have controlled parts of Kursk for quite some time, which means they could have prepared for both defensive and delaying operations. This creates better conditions for holding onto the territory they have taken.”
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