Trump’s behavior and his punitive tariffs against other countries resemble the tactics of a hostage-taker. This is the observation of negotiation expert Lars-Johan Åge, who has himself worked with the FBI’s hostage negotiators.
“A hostage situation is characterized by making completely unreasonable demands that create a crisis which can escalate into a threat to people’s lives and health. This is somewhat the same thing,” says Lars-Johan Åge, who is also a professor at the University of Gävle.
He emphasizes the importance of all parties being able to live with the outcome of a negotiation—or at least not feel ashamed of it at home.
“One should not underestimate that the most important thing in global politics is saving face. And perhaps that’s exactly what happened on Wednesday evening when Trump paused all tariffs at 10 percent for 90 days—except for China, where he hit with 125 percent.”
This is a classic negotiation strategy, explains Lars-Johan Åge.
“Trump is now stepping out onto the balcony, as it’s called in negotiation research, when you take a timeout. He has probably realized that he’s dealing with a system far larger than himself and that he doesn’t hold absolute power, even if he often tries to give that impression,” says Lars-Johan Åge.
Domestic unrest, falling markets, and pressure on the U.S. bond market are identified as decisive factors that caused the president to retreat.
“He hits with a club to the head, and when that fails, he’s not afraid to back down.”
Lars-Johan Åge’s analysis of the situation is that Trump wants to save face and is counting on 90 days being enough breathing room before potentially restarting the tariffs.
But taking a break like this has historically not been a common tactic for the often headstrong businessman.
“So perhaps there really is someone wise nearby after all. Taking a timeout is what you should do when everything is going south in a negotiation, because time pressure is the worst—it leads to all the stereotypes, prejudices, and demonizations of the counterpart being reinforced.”
Lars-Johan Åge believes that Trump, at his core, acts as the businessman he is and is guided by three consistent beliefs:
- Negotiations are a battle. You must dominate your opponent.
- Strength is everything. The side that backs down first loses.
- Unpredictability creates power. If your opponent cannot foresee your next move, they are operating from a weak position.
“He’s looking at where the money is, what funds he needs to achieve the promised tax cuts, and where he can get them—just like you would think in a boardroom.”
However, the president forgets that he is in a complex environment and a fragile global trade system where every action causes ripples.
“There are thousands of real estate players in Manhattan, and if you burn ten, there are still thousands left. As president, that logic doesn’t really hold.”
Is Trump being too harsh on China?
“Yes, this entire idea is homemade economics. For a businessman, the worst-case scenario is that something goes wrong and you have to pay a few million in a lawsuit. The problem now is that there’s an underlying organic system that everyone relies on.”
He also emphasizes the importance of finding Trump’s black swan, which in negotiations refers to something unspoken that is nonetheless important to the other party.
“That’s the key you try to find. Just because someone says one thing doesn’t mean it’s the whole truth. What lies behind it is often easier to solve than what’s being said.”
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