In a recent interview that underscores shifting tides in European security, the Swedish Navy has warned that encounters with Russian submarines in the Baltic Sea have become “almost weekly.”
According to the Navy’s chief of operations, Marko Petkovic, what once may have been occasional incursions have now become a regular — and worrying — feature of maritime life in the region. “It is very common,” he said, adding that the increase in frequency reflects a broader modernization and expansion of Russian naval capabilities.
Russia, he warned, is far from slowing down. Shipyards in St. Petersburg and the militarized enclave of Kaliningrad reportedly produce a new Kilo-class submarine each year, as part of what Petkovic described as a “deliberate and constant modernisation programme.”
He added that, should hostilities in Ukraine ease or a ceasefire be declared, Russia is likely to shift even more maritime assets toward the Baltic — potentially increasing pressure on Sweden and its neighbours.
But the specter of submarines is only part of the challenge. The Baltic region now faces a complex web of maritime threats: suspected hybrid attacks from drones, possible sabotage of underwater infrastructure (including undersea cables and pipelines), and the movement of aging oil tankers dubbed the “shadow fleet.” These vessels, often carrying Russian crude oil, pose risks beyond conventional naval threats, including espionage, environmental damage, and disruption of critical infrastructure.
To counter these developments, Sweden and its allies have stepped up vigilance. Earlier this year, Sweden hosted a large anti-submarine warfare exercise, Playbook Merlin 25, involving nine countries, as part of efforts to refine submarine-hunting tactics in the Baltic’s complex underwater landscape.
Moreover, the establishment of Operation Baltic Sentry earlier this year — a NATO-led initiative to safeguard undersea infrastructure — has reportedly contributed to a reduction in incidents involving submarine cables. According to the navy, since the operation began, no major cable sabotage events have been recorded.
Nevertheless, the challenges remain daunting. The seabed around Sweden is shallow, irregular, and often cloaked in low-visibility waters — conditions that give submarines and other covert vessels ample opportunity to hide or evade detection. Petkovic bluntly warned that the navy is preparing for this to be the “new normal.”
For ordinary Swedes and Baltic-Sea neighbours, these developments carry a quiet but real implication: in the post-Ukraine-war security environment, the Baltic Sea — once viewed by many as Europe’s “quiet backyard” — is fast becoming one of its most contested and geopolitically sensitive regions.
As nations re-align and alliances adapt, Sweden’s growing naval vigilance reflects a broader shift: from neutrality to active defense, from routine maritime routes to guarded channels, from calm coastlines to frontline waters. The Baltic is changing — and so is Sweden’s role within it.
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