{"id":56,"date":"2025-04-11T09:44:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T07:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/?p=56"},"modified":"2025-04-11T09:44:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T07:44:00","slug":"the-expert-on-trumps-club-strategy-trying-to-save-face","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/?p=56","title":{"rendered":"The expert on Trump\u2019s &#8220;club strategy&#8221;: Trying to save face"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-17.png?w=1010\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-58\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s behavior and his punitive tariffs against other countries resemble the tactics of a hostage-taker. This is the observation of negotiation expert Lars-Johan \u00c5ge, who has himself worked with the FBI\u2019s hostage negotiators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA hostage situation is characterized by making completely unreasonable demands that create a crisis which can escalate into a threat to people&#8217;s lives and health. This is somewhat the same thing,\u201d says Lars-Johan \u00c5ge, who is also a professor at the University of G\u00e4vle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He emphasizes the importance of all parties being able to live with the outcome of a negotiation\u2014or at least not feel ashamed of it at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOne should not underestimate that the most important thing in global politics is saving face. And perhaps that\u2019s exactly what happened on Wednesday evening when Trump paused all tariffs at 10 percent for 90 days\u2014except for China, where he hit with 125 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a classic negotiation strategy, explains Lars-Johan \u00c5ge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTrump is now stepping out onto the balcony, as it\u2019s called in negotiation research, when you take a timeout. He has probably realized that he\u2019s dealing with a system far larger than himself and that he doesn\u2019t hold absolute power, even if he often tries to give that impression,\u201d says Lars-Johan \u00c5ge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Domestic unrest, falling markets, and pressure on the U.S. bond market are identified as decisive factors that caused the president to retreat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe hits with a club to the head, and when that fails, he\u2019s not afraid to back down.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lars-Johan \u00c5ge\u2019s analysis of the situation is that Trump wants to save face and is counting on 90 days being enough breathing room before potentially restarting the tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But taking a break like this has historically not been a common tactic for the often headstrong businessman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSo perhaps there really is someone wise nearby after all. Taking a timeout is what you should do when everything is going south in a negotiation, because time pressure is the worst\u2014it leads to all the stereotypes, prejudices, and demonizations of the counterpart being reinforced.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lars-Johan \u00c5ge believes that Trump, at his core, acts as the businessman he is and is guided by three consistent beliefs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Negotiations are a battle. You must dominate your opponent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strength is everything. The side that backs down first loses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unpredictability creates power. If your opponent cannot foresee your next move, they are operating from a weak position.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s looking at where the money is, what funds he needs to achieve the promised tax cuts, and where he can get them\u2014just like you would think in a boardroom.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the president forgets that he is in a complex environment and a fragile global trade system where every action causes ripples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-16.png?w=520\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-57\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere are thousands of real estate players in Manhattan, and if you burn ten, there are still thousands left. As president, that logic doesn\u2019t really hold.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is Trump being too harsh on China?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYes, this entire idea is homemade economics. For a businessman, the worst-case scenario is that something goes wrong and you have to pay a few million in a lawsuit. The problem now is that there\u2019s an underlying organic system that everyone relies on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also emphasizes the importance of finding Trump\u2019s black swan, which in negotiations refers to something unspoken that is nonetheless important to the other party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s the key you try to find. Just because someone says one thing doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s the whole truth. What lies behind it is often easier to solve than what\u2019s being said.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lars-Johan \u00c5ge, a negotiation expert, compares Trump\u2019s tariffs to hostage-taking, noting the importance of reasonable demands in negotiations. He suggests Trump\u2019s timeout from imposing tariffs reflects a realization of larger systemic issues. Analyzing Trump\u2019s tactics, \u00c5ge emphasizes the need for understanding underlying concerns and the complexity of global trade dynamics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":57,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/57"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swedishpost.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}