The Swedish Post

Political parties in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt brought an unusually consequential regional election campaign to a close on Saturday, September 5, with last-minute appearances, street campaigning and competing public demonstrations before voters elect a new Landtag on Sunday.

The final day capped a campaign dominated by the sharp rise of the Alternative for Germany, whose lead in opinion polling has transformed what might ordinarily have been a regional contest into a political test with national implications. Approximately 1.7 million eligible voters are being called to the polls on September 6, with voting stations scheduled to open at 08:00 and close at 18:00 local time.

Final surveys indicated that the AfD was entering election day significantly ahead of all of its competitors. A pre-election poll reported by German public broadcaster ARD placed the AfD on 42%, followed by the CDU on 22%. Die Linke stood at 11%, the Social Democratic Party at 8% and the Greens at 6%, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, was measured at 4% and risked falling below the threshold required for representation.

A separate ZDF Politbarometer survey released shortly before the vote showed a broadly similar picture, with the AfD at 41%, the CDU at 23%, Die Linke at 11.5%, the SPD at 8.5%, the Greens at 6%, BSW at 4% and the Free Democratic Party at 3%. As with all opinion surveys, the figures represent a snapshot of voter preferences rather than an election result.

The unusually large AfD lead has focused attention not only on which party will finish first but also on whether the AfD could obtain an absolute majority of seats. That calculation does not depend solely on the party’s percentage of the vote. Under Germany’s electoral system, parties that fail to meet the 5% threshold generally receive no proportional representation, meaning a large number of votes cast for smaller parties could reduce the share of valid parliamentary votes needed for a seat majority.

That dynamic has made the fortunes of the Greens, BSW and FDP especially significant. Relatively small movements around the 5% line could substantially alter the composition of the new legislature and the number of seats required for control. The election therefore remains structurally uncertain despite the AfD’s substantial polling advantage.

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund has made clear that his preferred route to government is an outright parliamentary majority. In one of his final major campaign appearances, he told supporters that the party had already changed Saxony-Anhalt’s political landscape and portrayed the election as a potential turning point for eastern Germany. At a large AfD family event in Magdeburg on Friday, police estimated attendance at about 5,500 people.

AfD federal co-leader Tino Chrupalla also appeared during the campaign’s closing phase, arguing that a breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt could have consequences beyond the state. Senior national party figures were expected at closing events as the AfD attempted to maximise turnout among supporters during the final hours before voting.

The AfD’s campaign has centred heavily on migration, internal security, energy costs, dissatisfaction with federal policy and criticism of the established parties. Siegmund has presented the election as an opportunity for a fundamental political change after decades in which the CDU has played the central role in Saxony-Anhalt’s governments.

The party’s position has also brought renewed scrutiny of the Saxony-Anhalt AfD organisation. The state Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the regional association as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation. The AfD disputes the assessment and has pursued legal action against the classification; proceedings have been suspended while related legal questions are addressed.

For the CDU, the campaign has been an attempt to prevent the AfD from translating its polling advantage into control of the state government. Minister-President Sven Schulze has emphasised investment, industrial development, employment and administrative stability, arguing that Saxony-Anhalt should not risk economic disruption through a radical change of political direction.

Schulze has also sought to distinguish his state-level campaign from the political fortunes of the federal government in Berlin. Chancellor Friedrich Merz appeared with him during the final week, including at the Leuna chemical and industrial complex, but the CDU campaign has largely placed Schulze and regional issues at the centre of its message.

Merz warned during appearances in the state that an AfD government could damage Saxony-Anhalt’s attractiveness to international investors. The argument reflects the CDU’s effort to shift the campaign from dissatisfaction with migration and federal politics toward questions of economic credibility, jobs and long-term investment.

Schulze has ruled out a formal coalition with either the AfD or Die Linke. Asked during the campaign about the parliamentary arrangements that could follow an inconclusive election, however, he stressed that the result would have to be assessed after voters had spoken. His stated objective is to lead a government formed from what he describes as the political centre.

The distinction could become important if the AfD finishes first without securing a majority. Most other parties have rejected a governing coalition with the AfD, potentially requiring complicated negotiations among several parties to produce a viable alternative majority.

The current state government is a coalition of the CDU, SPD and FDP. Polling indicates that the existing three-party combination is unlikely to retain its majority, in part because the FDP is at risk of losing representation entirely. That would remove one of the governing parties from the Landtag and force a different coalition formula if the CDU is to remain in office.

Die Linke, led in the state campaign by Eva von Angern, enters election day in third place according to the principal final surveys. The party held closing events in Magdeburg and Halle with support from prominent national figures including parliamentary leader Heidi Reichinnek and senior party personalities. Its position could become particularly important if the post-election arithmetic leaves the CDU and other centrist parties without a straightforward majority.

That possibility creates a political dilemma for the CDU because the party has a national resolution rejecting coalitions and comparable forms of cooperation with both the AfD and Die Linke. Any parliamentary situation in which votes from the Left become relevant to the election of a minister-president would therefore attract intense attention from the federal CDU as well as from its Saxony-Anhalt organisation.

The SPD, whose lead candidate is Armin Willingmann, has concentrated on employment, wage conditions, social stability and the need to attract skilled workers to the state. With polling in the high single digits, its immediate objective is to maintain a meaningful parliamentary presence and remain relevant to possible post-election coalition negotiations.

SPD campaigners have also framed the vote as a choice over Saxony-Anhalt’s openness to immigration and outside workers. Like many eastern German regions, the state faces demographic pressures and shortages of skilled labour in some sectors, producing a policy debate in which economic demand for workers intersects with public concerns about migration.

The Greens are in an even more precarious position. Surveys around 6% leave the party only narrowly above the threshold. During the final campaign period, Green activists held information stands, door-to-door campaigning and extended mobilisation events in Magdeburg, Halle, Stendal and other areas. Federal Green figures also participated in the final phase.

BSW and the FDP, meanwhile, are fighting for political survival in the legislature. Surveys putting them below 5% mean that even modest differences between polling and actual voting could decide whether they enter the new Landtag. Their performance could in turn have an outsized effect on the overall seat distribution.

Sixteen parties and 398 candidates are participating in the state election, according to Saxony-Anhalt’s statistical authorities. The Landtag consists of at least 83 members, although the final number can rise under the state’s electoral rules. Saxony-Anhalt is divided into 41 constituencies.

Election-eve campaigning unfolded alongside a major mobilisation by civil society groups. Police said twelve events had been registered in Magdeburg for Saturday, with additional gatherings planned in Halle. A broad alliance of trade unions, churches, social organisations and civic groups organised a demonstration and democracy festival in the state capital under a message promoting democracy, diversity and social cohesion.

Thousands of people joined marches toward Magdeburg’s Domplatz. Police counted around 6,000 people in feeder demonstrations before the main festival had fully begun, while organisers had expected several thousand more during the day. Musical performances and speeches were scheduled as part of the event.

The parallel mobilisation illustrated the unusually charged atmosphere surrounding the election. Civil society organisations have argued that a strong turnout is essential because of the possibility of an AfD majority, while the AfD has accused established political and civic institutions of attempting to block democratic political change.

Despite the national attention, local concerns remain central to many voters. Surveys and reporting during the campaign have identified integration, education and the economy among the most important issues, alongside dissatisfaction with government performance and declining trust in political institutions.

Saxony-Anhalt has undergone major economic and demographic changes since German reunification. Large industrial investments in sectors including chemicals, energy and advanced manufacturing have created new employment opportunities, but some rural areas continue to face population decline, ageing and concerns over access to public services.

These pressures have provided competing narratives for the main parties. The CDU points to investment and economic modernisation as evidence of progress that should not be endangered. The AfD argues that longstanding governments have failed to address insecurity, infrastructure problems and voter frustration. The Left and SPD emphasise wages and social protections, while the Greens focus in part on modernisation, climate policy and an open economy.

The election also has implications well beyond Magdeburg. The AfD has established especially strong support across parts of eastern Germany and has sought to convert electoral growth into executive power. A government led by the party in Saxony-Anhalt would represent a new stage in that strategy and intensify Germany’s debate over how mainstream parties should respond to the far right.

The result will also be closely examined for its impact on Chancellor Merz and the federal CDU. A substantial defeat for the Christian Democrats in a state they have governed for years would increase pressure on the party to reassess how it competes with the AfD, particularly in eastern Germany.

Other regional elections will further amplify the significance of Sunday’s vote. Parties are already looking toward subsequent contests, meaning that campaign methods, turnout patterns and voter movements in Saxony-Anhalt are likely to be studied for lessons that can be applied elsewhere.

For the AfD, a strong result without an outright seat majority would create a different challenge: finishing decisively first while remaining unable to form a government could reinforce its criticism of the other parties’ refusal to cooperate, but would leave executive power dependent on whether it can eventually overcome its political isolation.

For the CDU and its potential partners, the central question would then become whether a stable government can be constructed without the election’s largest party. The answer would depend on which smaller parties clear the threshold and how many combinations can command a majority in the new parliament.

Election officials have prepared for counting to begin immediately after polls close at 18:00 on Sunday. The Statistical Office of Saxony-Anhalt plans to publish interim results during the evening, with a provisional state result expected during the night or early on September 7.

Until then, the final hours of campaigning leave all parties focused primarily on turnout. With several parties near the parliamentary threshold and the AfD close enough to a seat majority for small changes in the vote distribution to matter substantially, participation could influence not only individual party results but the entire range of possible governments.

Campaigning therefore closes with the central political question unresolved: whether the AfD’s unprecedented polling lead will translate into enough parliamentary strength to govern, or whether the remaining parties will retain sufficient seats to construct an alternative majority. Saxony-Anhalt’s voters will determine that balance when polling stations open on Sunday morning.